All resolved pollsResolved · 10 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Ecuador LigaPro Monday: three calls
Técnico Universitario 0–3 Mushuc Runa · Libertad (Ecuador) 2–1 Universidad Católica (Quito) · Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Manta F.C.
The verdict

Técnico Universitario 0–3 Mushuc Runa · Libertad (Ecuador) 2–1 Universidad Católica (Quito) · Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Manta F.C.

Ecuador LigaPro Monday: three calls 511 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Mushuc Runa, and it went the other way.

49%Crowd on Mushuc Runa
37%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Tecnico Universitario…Crowd & market agreed
Libertad Loja vs…Surprise
Deportivo Cuenca vs…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters511World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa: how does it end?
Mushuc Runa ✓49%
Tecnico Uni42%
Tie10%
OutcomeMushuc Runa
Voters511
ReadConsensus
2Libertad Loja vs Universidad Catolica: how does it end?
Uni Catolica49%
Libertad Loja ✓33%
Tie18%
OutcomeLibertad Loja
Voters511
ReadUpset
3Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta: how does it end?
Cuenca52%
Manta ✓32%
Tie16%
OutcomeManta
Voters511
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa: how does it end: Mushuc RunaConsensus
Mkt 37%Crowd 49%+12pp
Result: Mushuc Runa · 0.45
: Deep
Libertad Loja vs Universidad Catolica: how does it end: Uni CatolicaUpset
Mkt 49%Crowd 49%0pp
Result: Libertad Loja · 0.72
: Deep
Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta: how does it end: CuencaUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 52%-8pp
Result: Manta · 0.76
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa: how does it end0.45
Libertad Loja vs Universidad Catolica: how does it end0.72
Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta: how does it end0.76
Average0.64
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

The crowd's modal vision: Mushuc Runa take Leg 1, Uni Catolica dominate Leg 2, and Cuenca close out the card at home.

Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa: how does it end?Mushuc Runa
Libertad Loja vs Universidad Catolica: how does it end?Uni Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta: how does it end?Cuenca
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A closely held alternative: Tecnico Uni flip the opener, Uni Catolica still win Leg 2, and Cuenca hold firm in Leg 3.

Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa: how does it end?Tecnico Uni
Libertad Loja vs Universidad Catolica: how does it end?Uni Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta: how does it end?Cuenca
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters · came true

A contrarian sweep: Mushuc Runa win Leg 1, Libertad Loja spring an upset in Leg 2, and Manta take the points in Leg 3.

Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa: how does it end?Mushuc Runa
Libertad Loja vs Universidad Catolica: how does it end?Libertad Loja
Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta: how does it end?Manta
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 511 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosTecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa: how does it end?Libertad Loja vs Universidad Catolica: how does it end?Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta: how does it end?
114%70 voters
Mushuc RunaCalled it!
Uni CatolicaGot it wrong
CuencaGot it wrong
1.1×
213%67 voters
Tecnico UniGot it wrong
Uni CatolicaGot it wrong
CuencaGot it wrong
1.2×
37%37 voters
Mushuc RunaCalled it!
Libertad LojaCalled it!
MantaCalled it!
1.4×
47%36 voters
Tecnico UniGot it wrong
Uni CatolicaGot it wrong
MantaCalled it!
1.1×
57%36 voters
Mushuc RunaCalled it!
Libertad LojaCalled it!
CuencaGot it wrong
0.8×
67%34 voters
Tecnico UniGot it wrong
Libertad LojaCalled it!
CuencaGot it wrong
0.9×
76%30 voters
Mushuc RunaCalled it!
Uni CatolicaGot it wrong
MantaCalled it!
0.8×
86%30 voters
Tecnico UniGot it wrong
Libertad LojaCalled it!
MantaCalled it!
1.3×
94%18 voters
Mushuc RunaCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
MantaCalled it!
1.2×
104%18 voters
Mushuc RunaCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
CuencaGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (511 voters · top 10 of 27 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 337 · 7%
2 / 3127 · 25%
1 / 3218 · 43%
0 / 3129 · 25%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=511). Average 1.14 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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