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Liverpool
Arsenal
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
80%Crowd
57%Market
+23Divergence

+23 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd conviction on both teams scoring sits far above the market, the widest gap in this poll.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap57%80% Yes+23
2Match result32%45% Liverpool+13
3Will there be more than 2.5 goals?52%57% Over 2.5 goals+5
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters540World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Liverpool45%
Arsenal38%
Tie17%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters540
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals57%
Under 2.5 goals43%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters540
3Will both teams score?
Yes80%
No20%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters540
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Liverpool
Mkt 32%Crowd 45%+13pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 52%Crowd 57%+5pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 57%Crowd 80%+23pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Liverpool take the points in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A sizeable share of the crowd pictures Arsenal edging it in a lively, high-scoring affair with both teams leaving their mark on the scoresheet.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A tighter Liverpool win where both teams score but the game stays close and goals are kept to a minimum, a scenario the crowd backs less than the numbers alone would suggest.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
56% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 540 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
126%138 voters
LiverpoolPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.2×
220%106 voters
ArsenalPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.1×
310%56 voters
LiverpoolPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
410%52 voters
ArsenalPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
58%41 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
67%40 voters
LiverpoolPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.9×
77%37 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.9×
86%32 voters
ArsenalPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.8×
93%14 voters
ArsenalPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.6×
102%11 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (540 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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