All resolved pollsResolved · 28 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
BelgiumCrowd had 13%0
FranceWon · Crowd had 77%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — France won 0–1.

Belgium vs France 614 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on France, and the crowd had it.

77%Crowd on France
52%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario48%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters614World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
France ✓77%
Belgium13%
Tie10%
OutcomeFrance
Voters614
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals67%
Under 2.5 goals ✓33%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters614
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes78%
No ✓22%
OutcomeNo
Voters614
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FranceConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 77%+25pp
Result: France · 0.08
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 67%+7pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.90
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 78%+17pp
Result: No · 1.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.08
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.90
Will both teams score1.22
Average0.73
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 48% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: France winning an open, end-to-end contest with goals flowing at both ends, a lively multi-goal affair with both sides on the scoresheet.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tighter France victory, but still with both teams contributing goals, a controlled win that leaves room for a consolation or early opener from Belgium.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters · came true

France grinding out a clean, low-scoring win, shutting Belgium out entirely, a disciplined defensive performance with goals kept to a minimum and only one side scoring.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
70% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 614 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
148%294 voters
FranceCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
214%85 voters
FranceCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
38%50 voters
FranceCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
47%44 voters
FranceCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
57%43 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
64%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
73%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
83%16 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.8×
92%15 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
102%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
3.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (614 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 350 · 8%
2 / 3159 · 26%
1 / 3341 · 56%
0 / 364 · 10%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=614). Average 1.32 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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