All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd beat the market
NorwayCrowd had 27%1
PortugalWon · Crowd had 57%2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Portugal won 1–2.

Norway vs Portugal 611 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 21 points above the market's price on Portugal, and the crowd had it.

57%Crowd on Portugal
36%Market price
+21Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd beat the market
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario31%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters611World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Portugal ✓57%
Norway27%
Tie16%
OutcomePortugal
Voters611
ReadCrowd
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓61%
Under 2.5 goals39%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters611
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓76%
No24%
OutcomeYes
Voters611
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: PortugalCrowd
Mkt 36%Crowd 57%+21pp
Result: Portugal · 0.28
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 61%+3pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.30
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 76%+15pp
Result: Yes · 0.12
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.28
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.30
Will both teams score0.12
Average0.23
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 31% of voters · came true

The crowd's dominant vision: Portugal in control of an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultPortugal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A contrarian but coherent picture: Norway cause an upset in a lively, back-and-forth contest with both teams on the scoresheet.

Match resultNorway
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Portugal grind out a narrow win in a tight, low-scoring affair, but Norway still manage a consolation to keep the scoresheet mutual.

Match resultPortugal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
56% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 611 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
131%188 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
214%88 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
310%64 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
49%56 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
57%45 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.6×
67%44 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
77%43 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
86%34 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
93%18 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
102%15 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (611 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3188 · 31%
2 / 3229 · 37%
1 / 3165 · 27%
0 / 329 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=611). Average 1.94 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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