All resolved pollsResolved · 7 OCT 2026Upset
BragantinoCrowd's pick · 52%1
MirassolCrowd had 29%1
The verdict

Red Bull Bragantino 1–1 Mirassol

Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol 562 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 9 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

63%Crowd on Yes
54%Market price
+9Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters562World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Bragantino52%
Mirassol29%
Tie ✓18%
OutcomeTie
Voters562
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓54%
Over 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters562
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓63%
No37%
OutcomeYes
Voters562
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: BragantinoUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 52%-2pp
Result: Tie · 1.03
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 54%+6pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.42
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 63%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.27
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.03
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.42
Will both teams score0.27
Average0.57
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

The crowd's most-backed vision: a Bragantino win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultBragantino
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tight, controlled Bragantino victory, kept narrow and defensive, with only one side breaking through and the scoreline staying low.

Match resultBragantino
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

An upset vision: Mirassol winning in a lively, high-tempo contest where both teams contribute to a busy scoreline.

Match resultMirassol
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
48% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 562 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%128 voters
BragantinoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
214%80 voters
BragantinoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
311%62 voters
MirassolGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
411%62 voters
BragantinoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
59%49 voters
MirassolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
68%44 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
77%38 voters
MirassolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
85%28 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
94%25 voters
BragantinoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
104%20 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (562 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 344 · 8%
2 / 3148 · 26%
1 / 3329 · 59%
0 / 341 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=562). Average 1.35 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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