VoxPop top scenarios
37% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Turkey0
Paraguay1
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
70%Crowd
51%Market
+19Divergence
+19 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap51%70% Yes+19
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?45%54% Yes+9
3Who wins?48%45% Turkey-3
4Who leads at half-time?35%37% Turkey+2
UpsetTurkey 0–1 Paraguay — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeParaguay
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeParaguay
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.60
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.58
Will both teams score0.98
Who leads at half-time0.61
Average0.69
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
116%197 voters
TurkeyGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
TurkeyGot it wrong
2.6×
214%173 voters
ParaguayCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ParaguayCalled it!
2.7×
37%85 voters
TurkeyGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
TurkeyGot it wrong
1.3×
46%76 voters
ParaguayCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ParaguayCalled it!
1.4×
55%66 voters
TurkeyGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
TurkeyGot it wrong
2.4×
65%57 voters
ParaguayCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ParaguayCalled it!
2.4×
74%53 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
3.2×
83%40 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
5.7×
93%36 voters
TurkeyGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.7×
103%35 voters
ParaguayCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
ParaguayCalled it!
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.37How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.6×The most-backed combination drew 2.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 1.52 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching