All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Miami DolphinsCrowd's pick · 50%24
Cincinnati BengalsWon · Crowd had 50%31
The verdict

The crowd backed Miami Dolphins. Cincinnati Bengals won 24–31.

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 24 points above the market's price on Miami Dolphins, and it went the other way.

50%Crowd on Miami Dolphins
26%Market price
+24Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsMarket beat the crowd
Cincinnati win by 8 or…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 42.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Miami Dolphins50%
Cincinnati Bengals ✓50%
OutcomeCincinnati Bengals
Voters4
ReadMarket
2Will Cincinnati win by 8 or more?
Yes50%
No ✓50%
OutcomeNo
Voters4
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Over 42.5 ✓50%
Under 42.550%
OutcomeOver 42.5
Voters4
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Cincinnati ✓50%
Miami25%
Tie25%
OutcomeCincinnati
Voters4
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Miami DolphinsMarket
Mkt 26%Crowd 50%+24pp
Result: Cincinnati Bengals · 0.50
: Deep
Will Cincinnati win by 8 or more: YesMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 50%+5pp
Result: No · 0.50
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Over 42.5Consensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 50%-1pp
Result: Over 42.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: CincinnatiConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 50%-17pp
Result: Cincinnati · 0.38
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will Cincinnati win by 8 or more0.50
Will there be more than 42.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.38
Average0.47
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A high-scoring Bengals blowout: Cincinnati dominant from the first half, pulling clear by more than a touchdown in a game that surpassed the total-points bar.

Who wins?Cincinnati Bengals
Will Cincinnati win by 8 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Cincinnati
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A grinding Bengals win: Cincinnati in control throughout, winning comfortably by eight-plus in a low-scoring, defensively shaped contest.

Who wins?Cincinnati Bengals
Will Cincinnati win by 8 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Cincinnati
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A wide-open, back-and-forth game with neither side ahead at the break, Miami eventually edging it in a high-scoring affair that neither team dominated early.

Who wins?Miami Dolphins
Will Cincinnati win by 8 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Cincinnati win by 8 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 42.5Called it!
CincinnatiCalled it!
4.0×
225%1 voter
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 42.5Got it wrong
CincinnatiCalled it!
4.0×
325%1 voter
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 42.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
8.0×
425%1 voter
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 42.5Got it wrong
MiamiGot it wrong
8.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.81How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call4.0×The most-backed combination drew 4.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 25%
2 / 42 · 50%
1 / 41 · 25%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.