All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Upset
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCrowd's pick · 51%19
Cleveland BrownsWon · Crowd had 49%23
The verdict

The crowd backed Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cleveland Browns won 19–23.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cleveland Browns 539 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 28 points below the market's price on Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and it went the other way.

51%Crowd on Tampa Bay Buccaneers
79%Market price
-28Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
Tampa Bay win by 9 or…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 41.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters539World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers51%
Cleveland Browns ✓49%
OutcomeCleveland Browns
Voters539
ReadUpset
2Will Tampa Bay win by 9 or more?
Cleveland Browns +8.5 ✓52%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.548%
OutcomeCleveland Browns +8.5
Voters539
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 41.5 points?
Over 41.5 ✓54%
Under 41.546%
OutcomeOver 41.5
Voters539
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ✓45%
Cleveland Browns37%
Tie19%
OutcomeTampa Bay Buccaneers
Voters539
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Tampa Bay BuccaneersUpset
Mkt 79%Crowd 51%-28pp
Result: Cleveland Browns · 0.52
: Deep
Will Tampa Bay win by 9 or more: Cleveland Browns +8.5Consensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 52%0pp
Result: Cleveland Browns +8.5 · 0.46
: Deep
Will there be more than 41.5 points: Over 41.5Crowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 54%+4pp
Result: Over 41.5 · 0.42
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Tampa Bay BuccaneersConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 45%-21pp
Result: Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 0.48
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.52
Will Tampa Bay win by 9 or more0.46
Will there be more than 41.5 points0.42
Who leads at half-time0.48
Average0.47
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

A Cleveland-led, high-scoring upset: the Browns control the scoreboard from the first half, win outright, and keep the margin inside a touchdown in a busy game.

Who wins?Cleveland Browns
Will Tampa Bay win by 9 or more?Cleveland Browns +8.5
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Over 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Cleveland Browns
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Tampa Bay dominant from the jump: the Buccaneers lead at half, pull away to cover a big spread, and both offences combine for a high-scoring afternoon.

Who wins?Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Will Tampa Bay win by 9 or more?Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Over 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Tampa Bay wins comfortably but the game stays tight on points: the Buccaneers lead throughout and cover, while defences keep the total in check.

Who wins?Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Will Tampa Bay win by 9 or more?Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Under 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Tampa Bay Buccaneers
37% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 539 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Tampa Bay win by 9 or more?Will there be more than 41.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
114%76 voters
Cleveland BrownsCalled it!
Cleveland Browns +8.5Called it!
Over 41.5Called it!
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
2.8×
213%72 voters
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5Got it wrong
Over 41.5Called it!
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCalled it!
2.2×
310%54 voters
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5Got it wrong
Under 41.5Got it wrong
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCalled it!
2.0×
47%38 voters
Cleveland BrownsCalled it!
Cleveland Browns +8.5Called it!
Under 41.5Got it wrong
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
1.6×
56%33 voters
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
Cleveland Browns +8.5Called it!
Over 41.5Called it!
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCalled it!
1.0×
64%22 voters
Cleveland BrownsCalled it!
Cleveland Browns +8.5Called it!
Under 41.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
1.8×
74%21 voters
Cleveland BrownsCalled it!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5Got it wrong
Under 41.5Got it wrong
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
1.0×
84%21 voters
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
Cleveland Browns +8.5Called it!
Under 41.5Got it wrong
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCalled it!
0.7×
94%20 voters
Cleveland BrownsCalled it!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5Got it wrong
Under 41.5Got it wrong
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCalled it!
0.8×
103%17 voters
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5Got it wrong
Over 41.5Called it!
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (539 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.27How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.8×The most-backed combination drew 2.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-20. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 414 · 3%
3 / 4149 · 28%
2 / 4210 · 39%
1 / 4149 · 28%
0 / 417 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=539). Average 1.99 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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