All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Upset
Cruz AzulWon · Crowd had 33%4
América3
The verdict

The crowd backed America. Cruz Azul won 4–3.

Cruz Azul vs América 648 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 8 points above the market's price on America, and it went the other way.

46%Crowd on America
38%Market price
+8Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters648World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
America46%
Cruz Azul ✓33%
Tie20%
OutcomeCruz Azul
Voters648
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals55%
Over 2.5 goals ✓45%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters648
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓63%
No37%
OutcomeYes
Voters648
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: AmericaUpset
Mkt 38%Crowd 46%+8pp
Result: Cruz Azul · 0.70
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 55%+4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.61
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 63%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.27
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.70
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.61
Will both teams score0.27
Average0.53
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

An open, attacking América win with both sides on the scoresheet and goals flowing freely, the crowd's most-held single vision of the match.

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters · came true

A high-scoring Cruz Azul victory with América also finding the net, a lively upset scenario that drew notably stronger clustering than chance alone would predict.

Match resultCruz Azul
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A tight, low-scoring América win with the defence holding firm and Cruz Azul kept off the board, a compact and controlled vision of how the match might unfold.

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
44% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 648 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
117%108 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
214%90 voters
Cruz AzulCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
313%87 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
412%76 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
59%58 voters
Cruz AzulCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
68%51 voters
Cruz AzulCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
78%50 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
86%37 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
95%30 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
104%28 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (648 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 390 · 14%
2 / 3212 · 33%
1 / 3222 · 34%
0 / 3124 · 19%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=648). Average 1.41 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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