The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Portugal2
Croatia1
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
75%Crowd
46%Market
+29Divergence

+29 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on both teams scoring, and that gap aligned with the outcome.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap46%75% Yes+29
2Who leads at half-time?38%55% Portugal wins 1st Half+17
3Who wins this match?69%75% Portugal advances+6
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?56%53% No-3
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedPortugal 2–1 Croatia — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.5kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Portugal advances75%
Croatia advances25%
OutcomePortugal advances
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes75%
No25%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.5k
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No53%
Yes47%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.5k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Portugal wins 1st Half55%
Tie 1st Half29%
Croatia wins 1st Half16%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.5k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Portugal advancesConsensus
Mkt 69%Crowd 75%+6pp
Result: Portugal advances · 0.13
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 75%+29pp
Result: Yes · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 53%-3pp
Result: Yes · 0.56
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Portugal wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 38%Crowd 55%+17pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.83
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.13
Will both teams score in regulation time0.13
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.56
Who leads at half-time0.83
Average0.41
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters

Portugal in control from the off, both sides finding the net in an open game that spills past three goals with Portugal already ahead at the break.

Who wins this match?Portugal advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Portugal wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

Portugal edges ahead before half-time, Croatia pulls one back, but the game stays tight enough that the goal count stays below three.

Who wins this match?Portugal advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Portugal wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A cagey first half ends level, then both teams trade goals in a compact finish that keeps the total under three and Portugal through.

Who wins this match?Portugal advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
47% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.5k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
122%320 voters
Portugal advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Portugal wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.5×
217%247 voters
Portugal advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Portugal wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
38%124 voters
Portugal advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.0×
46%93 voters
Portugal advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Portugal wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
56%91 voters
Portugal advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.8×
65%79 voters
Portugal advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.9×
74%65 voters
Croatia advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Croatia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.1×
84%61 voters
Portugal advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Portugal wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
94%56 voters
Croatia advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Croatia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.4×
103%47 voters
Croatia advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.5k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 491 · 6%
3 / 4518 · 35%
2 / 4583 · 39%
1 / 4247 · 17%
0 / 437 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.5k). Average 2.26 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching