VoxPop top scenarios
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Ecuador0
Curaçao0
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
63%Crowd
31%Market
+32Divergence
+32 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap31%63% Yes+32
2Who wins?88%72% Ecuador-16
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?67%58% Yes-9
4Who leads at half-time?68%66% Ecuador-2
UpsetEcuador 0–0 Curaçao — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.30
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.67
Will both teams score0.79
Who leads at half-time1.09
Average0.96
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
128%361 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
EcuadorGot it wrong
1.6×
212%152 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
EcuadorGot it wrong
1.6×
311%142 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
EcuadorGot it wrong
1.1×
48%110 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
EcuadorGot it wrong
0.7×
54%53 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.8×
64%50 voters
CuraçaoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
CuraçaoGot it wrong
5.4×
74%49 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
5.5×
83%36 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
6.8×
93%34 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
CuraçaoGot it wrong
0.8×
102%30 voters
EcuadorGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 1.13 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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