All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Jacksonville JaguarsWon · Crowd had 0%35
New England PatriotsCrowd's pick · 100%6
The verdict

The crowd backed New England Patriots. Jacksonville Jaguars won 35–6.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 59 points above the market's price on New England Patriots, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on New England Patriots
41%Market price
+59Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called
winsMarket beat the crowd
Jacksonville win by 3…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 45.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New England Patriots100%
Jacksonville Jaguars ✓0%
OutcomeJacksonville Jaguars
Voters4
ReadMarket
2Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more?
No75%
Yes ✓25%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 45.5 points?
Over 45.575%
Under 45.5 ✓25%
OutcomeUnder 45.5
Voters4
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
New England wins 1st Half75%
Tie 1st Half25%
Jacksonville wins 1st Half ✓0%
OutcomeJacksonville wins 1st Half
Voters4
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New England PatriotsMarket
Mkt 41%Crowd 100%+59pp
Result: Jacksonville Jaguars · 2.00
: Deep
Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more: NoMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 75%+29pp
Result: Yes · 1.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 45.5 points: Over 45.5Market
Mkt 50%Crowd 75%+25pp
Result: Under 45.5 · 1.13
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New England wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 40%Crowd 75%+35pp
Result: Jacksonville wins 1st Half · 1.63
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins2.00
Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more1.13
Will there be more than 45.5 points1.13
Who leads at half-time1.63
Average1.47
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters

The crowd's modal vision: Patriots in control from the first whistle, points flowing freely, and Jacksonville never threatening a comfortable cover.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?New England wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A Patriots-led, lower-scoring picture where New England dictates the half but the offences stay quiet and Jacksonville falls short of a cover margin.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Under 45.5
Who leads at half-time?New England wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A contrarian pocket: an open, high-scoring contest that stays level at the break before New England pulls away, with Jacksonville keeping it close enough to cover.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 45.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
150%2 voters
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 45.5Got it wrong
New England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
225%1 voter
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Under 45.5Called it!
New England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.8×
325%1 voter
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Over 45.5Got it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
5.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.39How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 42 · 50%
0 / 42 · 50%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 0.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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