All resolved pollsResolved · 30 JUL 2026Market beat the crowd
Independiente Rivadavia2
Huracán1
The verdict

The crowd backed Huracan. Independiente Rivadavia won 2–1.

Rivadavia vs Huracán 832 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 30 points above the market's price on Huracan, and it went the other way.

55%Crowd on Huracan
25%Market price
+30Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
wins this matchMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters832World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Huracan55%
Rivadavia36%
Tie9%
OutcomeRivadavia
Voters832
ReadMarket
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No53%
Yes47%
OutcomeYes
Voters832
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters832
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: HuracanMarket
Mkt 25%Crowd 55%+30pp
Result: Rivadavia · 0.72
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoUpset
Mkt 70%Crowd 53%-17pp
Result: Yes · 0.56
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 39%Crowd 64%+25pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.72
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.56
Will both teams score in regulation time0.26
Average0.51
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 18% of voters

A high-scoring Huracán victory with both sides finding the net, the crowd's most vivid and tightly clustered vision of how this match would unfold.

Who wins this match?Huracan
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

Huracán winning a tight, competitive contest where both teams score but the game stays close and goals stay scarce.

Who wins this match?Huracan
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A narrow Rivadavia win in a cagey match, both teams getting on the scoresheet but the game never opening up into a high-scoring affair.

Who wins this match?Rivadavia
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
48% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 832 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
118%149 voters
HuracanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
217%144 voters
HuracanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
313%107 voters
RivadaviaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
411%94 voters
RivadaviaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
511%93 voters
HuracanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
69%71 voters
HuracanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
76%51 voters
RivadaviaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
85%44 voters
RivadaviaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
93%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
103%22 voters
TieGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (832 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.04How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 394 · 11%
2 / 3320 · 38%
1 / 3301 · 36%
0 / 3117 · 14%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=832). Average 1.47 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.