All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Atlético Bucaramanga
Atlético Nacional
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
63%Crowd
43%Market
+20Divergence

+20 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd conviction on Atlético Nacional runs well above market price. The clearest alpha window in this poll.

53sof alpha left before kick-off
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap43%63% Atlético Nacional+20
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario63%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters549World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Atlético Nacional63%
CA Bucaramanga20%
Tie17%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters549
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Atlético Nacional
Mkt 43%Crowd 63%+20pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 63% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Atlético Nacional take the points, a call the verified majority converged on with striking collective confidence.

Match resultAtlético Nacional
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A minority of the crowd sees Bucaramanga turning the match in their favour, a contrarian read that sits below the market's own price for this outcome.

Match resultCA Bucaramanga
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

The smallest slice of the crowd holds the draw scenario, placing it as the least likely outcome in the collective map and well below the market's implied probability.

Match resultTie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 549 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch result
163%347 voters
Atlético NacionalPending
1.0×
220%111 voters
CA BucaramangaPending
1.0×
317%91 voters
TiePending
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (549 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
-0.00How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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