All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Upset
Leeds UnitedCrowd had 35%0
Crystal PalaceCrowd's pick · 45%0
The verdict

Leeds United 0–0 Crystal Palace

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace 590 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Crystal Palace, and it went the other way.

45%Crowd on Crystal Palace
20%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters590World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Crystal Palace45%
Leeds United35%
Tie ✓20%
OutcomeTie
Voters590
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓53%
Over 2.5 goals47%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters590
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes64%
No ✓36%
OutcomeNo
Voters590
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Crystal PalaceUpset
Mkt 20%Crowd 45%+25pp
Result: Tie · 0.97
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 53%+8pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.44
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 64%+8pp
Result: No · 0.82
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.97
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.44
Will both teams score0.82
Average0.74
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

Crystal Palace winning an open, end-to-end game with both sides on the scoresheet and goals flowing freely throughout.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Leeds United claiming victory in a high-tempo, back-and-forth contest where both teams found the net in a lively affair.

Match resultLeeds United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Crystal Palace grinding out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Leeds off the scoresheet in a disciplined, compact match.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 590 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
117%98 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
216%93 voters
Leeds UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
313%77 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
411%67 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
59%52 voters
Leeds UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
68%47 voters
Leeds UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
77%42 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
86%33 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
95%30 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
104%24 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (590 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 330 · 5%
2 / 3182 · 31%
1 / 3187 · 32%
0 / 3191 · 32%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=590). Average 1.09 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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