All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Santos
Palmeiras
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
68%Crowd
56%Market
+12Divergence

+12 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well above market on both teams scoring, the widest gap on the board.

18m 11sof alpha left before kick-off
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap56%68% Yes+12
2Match result39%42% Palmeiras+3
3Will there be more than 2.5 goals?51%53% Over 2.5 goals+2
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters572World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Palmeiras42%
Santos42%
Tie16%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters572
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals53%
Under 2.5 goals47%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters572
3Will both teams score?
Yes68%
No32%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters572
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Palmeiras
Mkt 39%Crowd 42%+3pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 51%Crowd 53%+2pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 56%Crowd 68%+12pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

The crowd's most-backed vision: Palmeiras take the points in a free-flowing, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net.

Match resultPalmeiras
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

Nearly as popular: Santos turn the match their way in an open, high-scoring game where both teams contribute to the tally.

Match resultSantos
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A tight, low-scoring Santos win with only one side scoring, a compact minority vision that clusters far more than chance alone would predict.

Match resultSantos
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 572 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
121%122 voters
PalmeirasPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.4×
219%111 voters
SantosPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
310%60 voters
SantosPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.7×
49%50 voters
PalmeirasPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
59%50 voters
SantosPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
69%49 voters
PalmeirasPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
77%39 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
84%21 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.5×
94%21 voters
PalmeirasPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.5×
103%20 voters
SantosPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (572 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches