All resolved pollsResolved · 17 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Buffalo BillsWon · Crowd had 56%41
Detroit LionsCrowd had 44%31
The verdict

The crowd called it — Buffalo Bills won 41–31.

Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions 621 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 9 points below the market's price on Buffalo Bills, and the crowd had it.

56%Crowd on Buffalo Bills
65%Market price
-9Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
Buffalo win by 4 or moreMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 52.5…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters621World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Buffalo Bills ✓56%
Detroit Lions44%
OutcomeBuffalo Bills
Voters621
ReadConsensus
2Will Buffalo win by 4 or more?
Detroit Lions +3.552%
Buffalo Bills -3.5 ✓48%
OutcomeBuffalo Bills -3.5
Voters621
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 52.5 points?
Over 52.5 ✓58%
Under 52.542%
OutcomeOver 52.5
Voters621
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Buffalo BillsConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 56%-9pp
Result: Buffalo Bills · 0.39
: Deep
Will Buffalo win by 4 or more: Detroit Lions +3.5Market
Mkt 49%Crowd 52%+3pp
Result: Buffalo Bills -3.5 · 0.54
: Deep
Will there be more than 52.5 points: Over 52.5Consensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 58%+4pp
Result: Over 52.5 · 0.35
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.39
Will Buffalo win by 4 or more0.54
Will there be more than 52.5 points0.35
Average0.43
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters · came true

The crowd's most-backed vision: Bills in control, winning comfortably and driving a high-scoring, open shootout that clears the total with room to spare.

Who wins?Buffalo Bills
Will Buffalo win by 4 or more?Buffalo Bills -3.5
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Over 52.5
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A competitive, high-octane game where the Lions stay within the number throughout, both offenses firing in a close, entertaining contest.

Who wins?Detroit Lions
Will Buffalo win by 4 or more?Detroit Lions +3.5
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Over 52.5
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A tighter, grind-it-out affair with the Lions hanging close, defenses keeping the scoring in check and the total staying well within range.

Who wins?Detroit Lions
Will Buffalo win by 4 or more?Detroit Lions +3.5
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Under 52.5
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 621 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Buffalo win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 52.5 points?
121%133 voters
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
Buffalo Bills -3.5Called it!
Over 52.5Called it!
1.4×
217%105 voters
Detroit LionsGot it wrong
Detroit Lions +3.5Got it wrong
Over 52.5Called it!
1.3×
313%80 voters
Detroit LionsGot it wrong
Detroit Lions +3.5Got it wrong
Under 52.5Got it wrong
1.3×
412%77 voters
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
Buffalo Bills -3.5Called it!
Under 52.5Got it wrong
1.1×
512%76 voters
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
Detroit Lions +3.5Got it wrong
Over 52.5Called it!
0.7×
610%60 voters
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
Detroit Lions +3.5Got it wrong
Under 52.5Got it wrong
0.8×
78%48 voters
Detroit LionsGot it wrong
Buffalo Bills -3.5Called it!
Over 52.5Called it!
0.6×
87%42 voters
Detroit LionsGot it wrong
Buffalo Bills -3.5Called it!
Under 52.5Got it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (621 voters · top 8 of 8 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3133 · 21%
2 / 3201 · 32%
1 / 3207 · 33%
0 / 380 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=621). Average 1.62 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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