All resolved pollsResolved · 16 OCT 2026Upset
Deportivo La Coruña1
LevanteCrowd had 32%1
The verdict

Deportivo 1–1 Levante

Deportivo vs Levante 558 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Yes
55%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters558World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Deportivo De La Coruna52%
Levante32%
Tie ✓16%
OutcomeTie
Voters558
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓51%
Over 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters558
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters558
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Deportivo De La CorunaUpset
Mkt 47%Crowd 52%+5pp
Result: Tie · 1.08
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 51%+1pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 67%+12pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.08
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.22
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 24% of voters

A Deportivo win in an open, end-to-end affair, with goals flowing at both ends and the total clearing the 2.5 line comfortably.

Match resultDeportivo De La Coruna
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Deportivo grind out a narrow, tight victory, keeping Levante off the scoresheet in a low-scoring, controlled home performance.

Match resultDeportivo De La Coruna
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A close, scrappy Deportivo win where both sides find the net but the game stays tight and the goal tally stays modest.

Match resultDeportivo De La Coruna
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
49% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 558 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
124%133 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
213%72 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
312%68 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
412%67 voters
LevanteGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
59%49 voters
LevanteGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
68%44 voters
LevanteGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
76%36 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
84%25 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
93%18 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.4×
103%16 voters
LevanteGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (558 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 336 · 6%
2 / 3153 · 27%
1 / 3335 · 60%
0 / 334 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=558). Average 1.34 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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