All resolved pollsResolved · 30 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
EritreaCrowd had 12%0
South AfricaWon · Crowd had 77%5
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. South Africa won 0–5.

Eritrea vs South Africa 614 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 7 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

57%Crowd on Yes
50%Market price
+7Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario32%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters614World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
South Africa ✓77%
Eritrea12%
Tie12%
OutcomeSouth Africa
Voters614
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓53%
Under 2.5 goals47%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters614
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes57%
No ✓43%
OutcomeNo
Voters614
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: South AfricaConsensus
Mkt 81%Crowd 77%-4pp
Result: South Africa · 0.08
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 53%+4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.44
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 57%+7pp
Result: No · 0.65
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.08
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.44
Will both teams score0.65
Average0.39
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 32% of voters

A free-scoring South Africa victory with both sides finding the net, the crowd's dominant vision, pulling far more believers than chance alone would place here.

Match resultSouth Africa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 21% of voters

South Africa grinding out a tight, low-scoring win and keeping a clean sheet, a disciplined defensive scenario the crowd treated as its second most coherent read.

Match resultSouth Africa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

South Africa winning in a narrow, contained match where Eritrea still manage a consolation, a scenario the crowd actively discounted relative to what independent answers would

Match resultSouth Africa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
66% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 614 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
132%199 voters
South AfricaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
221%126 voters
South AfricaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
313%79 voters
South AfricaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
411%66 voters
South AfricaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
55%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.0×
64%23 voters
EritreaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
73%19 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
83%19 voters
EritreaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
93%18 voters
EritreaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
102%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (614 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 366 · 11%
2 / 3346 · 56%
1 / 3165 · 27%
0 / 337 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=614). Average 1.72 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.