All resolved pollsResolved · 16 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
NecaxaCrowd had 31%0
AtlasWon · Crowd had 49%2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Atlas won 0–2.

Necaxa vs Atlas 550 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Atlas, and the crowd had it.

49%Crowd on Atlas
36%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd beat the market
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters550World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Atlas ✓49%
Necaxa31%
Tie19%
OutcomeAtlas
Voters550
ReadCrowd
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals51%
Under 2.5 goals ✓49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters550
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes68%
No ✓32%
OutcomeNo
Voters550
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: AtlasCrowd
Mkt 36%Crowd 49%+13pp
Result: Atlas · 0.39
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 51%-4pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.52
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 68%+8pp
Result: No · 0.92
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.39
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.52
Will both teams score0.92
Average0.61
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 24% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Atlas winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a free-scoring affair.

Match resultAtlas
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

A vocal minority saw Necaxa turning the tide in a lively, high-scoring home performance with goals flowing at both ends.

Match resultNecaxa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters · came true

A compact alternative: Atlas grinding out a tight, controlled win with defences on top and only one side scoring.

Match resultAtlas
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
47% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 550 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
124%131 voters
AtlasCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
212%68 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
311%60 voters
AtlasCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
410%55 voters
AtlasCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
58%44 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
68%43 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
77%41 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
86%35 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
95%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
105%25 voters
AtlasCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (550 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 360 · 11%
2 / 3149 · 27%
1 / 3238 · 43%
0 / 3103 · 19%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=550). Average 1.3 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches