All resolved pollsResolved · 17 JUN 2026Crowd & market agreed
AustriaWon · Crowd had 72%3
JordanCrowd had 13%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Austria won 3–1.

Austria vs. Jordan 1.3k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 21 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Yes
46%Market price
+21Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Austria72%
Draw16%
Jordan13%
OutcomeAustria
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No53%
Yes47%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Austria56%
Draw25%
Jordan19%
OutcomeAustria
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: AustriaConsensus
Mkt 73%Crowd 72%-1pp
Result: Austria · 0.12
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 67%+21pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 53%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.56
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: AustriaConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 56%0pp
Result: Austria · 0.29
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.12
Will both teams score0.22
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.56
Who leads at half-time0.29
Average0.30
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters · came true

Austria in control from the first whistle, leading at the break, both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest that spills past three goals.

Who wins?Austria
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Austria
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Austria ahead at half-time and ultimately victorious, with Jordan grabbing a consolation, but the game staying tight enough to stay under three goals.

Who wins?Austria
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Austria
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A disciplined Austria shut-out, leading at the break and keeping Jordan off the scoresheet in a compact, low-scoring victory.

Who wins?Austria
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Austria
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
120%249 voters
AustriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
AustriaCalled it!
1.6×
213%166 voters
AustriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
AustriaCalled it!
0.9×
312%149 voters
AustriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
AustriaCalled it!
1.7×
45%67 voters
AustriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.7×
55%67 voters
AustriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
AustriaCalled it!
0.9×
65%58 voters
AustriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JordanGot it wrong
1.1×
74%54 voters
JordanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JordanGot it wrong
5.5×
84%49 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
2.7×
94%48 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
5.5×
103%42 voters
AustriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4249 · 20%
3 / 4355 · 28%
2 / 4392 · 31%
1 / 4201 · 16%
0 / 461 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.42 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.