The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Austria3
Jordan1
Crowd and market both called 3 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
67%Crowd
46%Market
+21Divergence

+21 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring, a gap that aligned with the outcome.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap46%67% Yes+21
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?43%53% No+10
3Who wins?73%72% Austria-1
4Who leads at half-time?56%56% Austria0
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedAustria 3–1 Jordan — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Austria72%
Draw16%
Jordan13%
OutcomeAustria
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No53%
Yes47%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Austria56%
Draw25%
Jordan19%
OutcomeAustria
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: AustriaConsensus
Mkt 73%Crowd 72%-1pp
Result: Austria · 0.12
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 67%+21pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 53%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.56
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: AustriaConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 56%0pp
Result: Austria · 0.29
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.12
Will both teams score0.22
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.56
Who leads at half-time0.29
Average0.30
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters · came true

Austria in control from the first whistle, leading at the break, both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest that spills past three goals.

Who wins?Austria
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Austria
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Austria ahead at half-time and ultimately victorious, with Jordan grabbing a consolation, but the game staying tight enough to stay under three goals.

Who wins?Austria
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Austria
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A disciplined Austria shut-out, leading at the break and keeping Jordan off the scoresheet in a compact, low-scoring victory.

Who wins?Austria
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Austria
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
120%249 voters
AustriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
AustriaCalled it!
1.6×
213%166 voters
AustriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
AustriaCalled it!
0.9×
312%149 voters
AustriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
AustriaCalled it!
1.7×
45%67 voters
AustriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.7×
55%67 voters
AustriaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
AustriaCalled it!
0.9×
65%58 voters
AustriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JordanGot it wrong
1.1×
74%54 voters
JordanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JordanGot it wrong
5.5×
84%49 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
2.7×
94%48 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
5.5×
103%42 voters
AustriaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4249 · 20%
3 / 4355 · 28%
2 / 4392 · 31%
1 / 4201 · 16%
0 / 461 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.42 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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