All resolved pollsResolved · 17 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Real BetisWon · Crowd had 66%1
GetafeCrowd had 17%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Real Betis won 1–0.

Real Betis vs Getafe 640 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

63%Crowd on Yes
44%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters640World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Real Betis ✓66%
Getafe17%
Tie17%
OutcomeReal Betis
Voters640
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓57%
Over 2.5 goals43%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters640
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes63%
No ✓37%
OutcomeNo
Voters640
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Real BetisConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 66%+12pp
Result: Real Betis · 0.17
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 57%-4pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.37
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 44%Crowd 63%+19pp
Result: No · 0.79
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.17
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.37
Will both teams score0.79
Average0.45
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

A Betis win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely across ninety minutes.

Match resultReal Betis
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters · came true

Betis grind out a tight, low-scoring victory, keeping Getafe quiet and leaving the scoresheet with just one side's name on it.

Match resultReal Betis
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

A narrow Betis win where both teams get on the board but the game stays compact, with no more than two goals shared between the sides.

Match resultReal Betis
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 640 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
126%166 voters
Real BetisCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
218%112 voters
Real BetisCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
317%107 voters
Real BetisCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
48%50 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
56%40 voters
GetafeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
66%37 voters
Real BetisCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
75%31 voters
GetafeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
84%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.2×
94%27 voters
GetafeGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
103%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (640 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3112 · 18%
2 / 3211 · 33%
1 / 3269 · 42%
0 / 348 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=640). Average 1.6 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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