All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
Indianapolis ColtsCrowd had 25%20
Tennessee TitansWon · Crowd had 75%26
The verdict

The crowd called it — Tennessee Titans won 20–26.

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 49 points above the market's price on Tennessee Titans, and the crowd had it.

75%Crowd on Tennessee Titans
26%Market price
+49Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsCrowd beat the market
Indianapolis win by 8…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 44.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Tennessee Titans ✓75%
Indianapolis Colts25%
OutcomeTennessee Titans
Voters4
ReadCrowd
2Will Indianapolis win by 8 or more?
No ✓75%
Yes25%
OutcomeNo
Voters4
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 44.5 points?
Under 44.575%
Over 44.5 ✓25%
OutcomeOver 44.5
Voters4
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Indianapolis ✓75%
Tie25%
Tennessee0%
OutcomeIndianapolis
Voters4
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Tennessee TitansCrowd
Mkt 26%Crowd 75%+49pp
Result: Tennessee Titans · 0.13
: Deep
Will Indianapolis win by 8 or more: NoConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 75%+20pp
Result: No · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 44.5 points: Under 44.5Market
Mkt 49%Crowd 75%+26pp
Result: Over 44.5 · 1.13
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: IndianapolisConsensus
Mkt 64%Crowd 75%+11pp
Result: Indianapolis · 0.13
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.13
Will Indianapolis win by 8 or more0.13
Will there be more than 44.5 points1.13
Who leads at half-time0.13
Average0.38
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A cautious, low-scoring home vision: Colts take the win without pulling away, Indianapolis controls the first half, and both defences keep the total tight.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Will Indianapolis win by 8 or more?No
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Indianapolis
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A wide-open, evenly matched contest: Titans prevail but neither side dominates early, offences fire freely, and the first half ends with neither team ahead.

Who wins?Tennessee Titans
Will Indianapolis win by 8 or more?No
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A defensive road win for Tennessee: Titans claim the game without a blowout margin, Indianapolis leads at the break but cannot hold on through the second half.

Who wins?Tennessee Titans
Will Indianapolis win by 8 or more?No
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Indianapolis
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Indianapolis win by 8 or more?Will there be more than 44.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 44.5Got it wrong
IndianapolisCalled it!
2.4×
225%1 voter
Tennessee TitansCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 44.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
7.1×
325%1 voter
Tennessee TitansCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 44.5Got it wrong
IndianapolisCalled it!
0.8×
425%1 voter
Tennessee TitansCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 44.5Got it wrong
IndianapolisCalled it!
2.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.50How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.4×The most-backed combination drew 2.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 42 · 50%
2 / 42 · 50%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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