All resolved pollsResolved · 10 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
ChelseaWon · Crowd had 78%5
BournemouthCrowd had 13%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — Chelsea won 5–1.

Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth 547 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 21 points above the market's price on Chelsea, and the crowd had it.

78%Crowd on Chelsea
57%Market price
+21Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario41%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters547World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Chelsea ✓78%
Bournemouth13%
Tie9%
OutcomeChelsea
Voters547
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓64%
Under 2.5 goals36%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters547
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters547
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ChelseaConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 78%+21pp
Result: Chelsea · 0.07
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 64%-1pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.26
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 67%+4pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.07
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.26
Will both teams score0.22
Average0.18
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 41% of voters · came true

A Chelsea win in an open, end-to-end match where both sides find the net and goals flow freely throughout.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Chelsea grind out a tight, controlled win, keeping Bournemouth off the scoresheet in a low-tempo, disciplined contest.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Chelsea run up a multi-goal tally while shutting Bournemouth out completely, a one-sided and high-scoring clean sheet.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 547 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
141%223 voters
ChelseaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
214%78 voters
ChelseaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
312%66 voters
ChelseaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
411%59 voters
ChelseaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
56%31 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
63%19 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.6×
73%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
83%17 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
93%16 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
101%8 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (547 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3223 · 41%
2 / 3174 · 32%
1 / 3125 · 23%
0 / 325 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=547). Average 2.09 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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