All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
LiverpoolCrowd had 35%0
Manchester CityWon · Crowd had 51%3
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Manchester City won 0–3.

Liverpool vs Manchester City 549 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

81%Crowd on Yes
66%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario30%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters549World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester City ✓51%
Liverpool35%
Tie14%
OutcomeManchester City
Voters549
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓62%
Under 2.5 goals38%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters549
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes81%
No ✓19%
OutcomeNo
Voters549
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester CityConsensus
Mkt 38%Crowd 51%+13pp
Result: Manchester City · 0.38
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 62%+1pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.29
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 66%Crowd 81%+15pp
Result: No · 1.31
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.38
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.29
Will both teams score1.31
Average0.66
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 30% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: City take the win in an open, end-to-end contest with goals at both ends and the scoreline pushed past two.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A sizeable bloc saw Liverpool turning the tide in a free-scoring affair, both sides contributing to a lively, high-goal home victory.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A minority picture of a tight City win, kept close and scrappy, yet still with Liverpool managing a consolation to get on the scoresheet.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
61% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 549 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
130%163 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
220%111 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
311%63 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
48%42 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
57%39 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.9×
66%32 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
76%31 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
85%26 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.9×
93%16 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.5×
102%11 voters
LiverpoolGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (549 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 316 · 3%
2 / 3218 · 40%
1 / 3242 · 44%
0 / 373 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=549). Average 1.32 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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