VoxPop top scenarios
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Germany2
Ivory Coast1
Crowd and market both called 3 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
81%Crowd
47%Market
+34Divergence
+34 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Germany on who leads at half-time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap47%81% Germany+34
2Who wins?63%83% Germany+20
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?58%78% Yes+20
4Will both teams score?56%68% Yes+12
Crowd & market agreedGermany 2–1 Ivory Coast — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario44%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeGermany
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeIvory Coast
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.04
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.10
Will both teams score0.20
Who leads at half-time1.49
Average0.46
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
144%595 voters
GermanyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
GermanyGot it wrong
1.2×
218%238 voters
GermanyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
GermanyGot it wrong
1.0×
37%95 voters
GermanyCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
GermanyGot it wrong
0.7×
46%80 voters
GermanyCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
GermanyGot it wrong
1.3×
52%32 voters
Ivory CoastGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Ivory CoastCalled it!
5.0×
62%31 voters
GermanyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.5×
72%24 voters
Ivory CoastGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
GermanyGot it wrong
0.4×
82%24 voters
GermanyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Ivory CoastCalled it!
0.4×
91%18 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
GermanyGot it wrong
0.4×
101%16 voters
Ivory CoastGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Ivory CoastCalled it!
8.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 2.37 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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