All resolved pollsNo result
Pumas UNAM
León
This poll cannot be scored, so there is no result
VoxPop gap highlight
How does it end?
47%Crowd
48%Market
-1Divergence

-1 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd runs well above market on Leon, well below on Tie. The real divergence story.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1How does it end?Biggest gap48%47% Pumas UNAM-1
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario47%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters708World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1How does it end?
Pumas UNAM47%
Leon35%
Tie17%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters708
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

How does it end: Pumas UNAM
Mkt 48%Crowd 47%-1pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 47% of voters

The crowd's modal vision: home ground holds, Pumas UNAM seeing the match out as the winning side.

How does it end?Pumas UNAM
Scenario 2 · 35% of voters

A strong minority picture: Leon leaving as victors, a read the crowd holds well above what the market implies.

How does it end?Leon
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

The crowd's least-favoured outcome: neither side separates, the match ending level. A scenario the crowd rates far below the market's own weight.

How does it end?Tie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 708 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosHow does it end?
147%335 voters
Pumas UNAMPending
1.0×
235%251 voters
LeonPending
1.0×
317%122 voters
TiePending
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (708 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.00How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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