All resolved pollsResolved · 19 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
San Francisco 49ersWon · Crowd had 80%23
Washington CommandersCrowd had 20%17
The verdict

The crowd backed Under 50.5. San Francisco 49ers won 23–17.

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders 5 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 34 points above the market's price on Under 50.5, and it went the other way.

80%Crowd on Under 50.5
46%Market price
+34Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
San Francisco win by 8…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 50.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario40%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters5World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
San Francisco 49ers ✓80%
Washington Commanders20%
OutcomeSan Francisco 49ers
Voters5
ReadConsensus
2Will San Francisco win by 8 or more?
Yes60%
No ✓40%
OutcomeNo
Voters5
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 50.5 points?
Under 50.5 ✓80%
Over 50.520%
OutcomeUnder 50.5
Voters5
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
San Francisco ✓60%
Tie20%
Washington20%
OutcomeSan Francisco
Voters5
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: San Francisco 49ersConsensus
Mkt 78%Crowd 80%+2pp
Result: San Francisco 49ers · 0.08
: Deep
Will San Francisco win by 8 or more: YesMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 60%+10pp
Result: No · 0.72
: Deep
Will there be more than 50.5 points: Under 50.5Crowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 80%+34pp
Result: Under 50.5 · 0.08
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: San FranciscoConsensus
Mkt 68%Crowd 60%-8pp
Result: San Francisco · 0.24
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.08
Will San Francisco win by 8 or more0.72
Will there be more than 50.5 points0.08
Who leads at half-time0.24
Average0.28
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 40% of voters

A dominant 49ers performance: San Francisco controls from the first whistle, leads at the break, wins by a wide margin, and both teams combine for a low-scoring, defence-first

Who wins?San Francisco 49ers
Will San Francisco win by 8 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 50.5 points?Under 50.5
Who leads at half-time?San Francisco
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A tight, grinding affair: the teams trade blows to a level half-time score, San Francisco edges it but never pulls clear, and the scoreboard stays stubbornly low throughout.

Who wins?San Francisco 49ers
Will San Francisco win by 8 or more?No
Will there be more than 50.5 points?Under 50.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
Scenario 3 · 20% of voters

Washington sets the early pace and leads at the break, but San Francisco claws back to win narrowly in a low-scoring game that stays well inside the total.

Who wins?San Francisco 49ers
Will San Francisco win by 8 or more?No
Will there be more than 50.5 points?Under 50.5
Who leads at half-time?Washington
80% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 5 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will San Francisco win by 8 or more?Will there be more than 50.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
140%2 voters
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 50.5Called it!
San FranciscoCalled it!
1.7×
220%1 voter
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 50.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
3.9×
320%1 voter
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 50.5Called it!
WashingtonGot it wrong
3.9×
420%1 voter
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 50.5Got it wrong
San FranciscoCalled it!
13.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (5 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.65How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 44 · 80%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 41 · 20%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=5). Average 2.6 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.