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New York Jets
Miami Dolphins
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Who wins?
75%Crowd
34%Market
+41Divergence

+41 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd heavily above market on Miami to win, well below on Jets.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who wins?Biggest gap34%75% Miami Dolphins+41
2Will there be more than 38.5 points?48%75% Under 38.5+27
3Who leads at half-time?28%50% Miami+22
4Will New York win by 5 or more?49%50% Yes+1
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Miami Dolphins75%
New York Jets25%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
2Will New York win by 5 or more?
Yes50%
No50%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
3Will there be more than 38.5 points?
Under 38.575%
Over 38.525%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
4Who leads at half-time?
Miami50%
New York J25%
Tie25%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters4
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Miami Dolphins
Mkt 34%Crowd 75%+41pp
: Thin
Will New York win by 5 or more: Yes
Mkt 49%Crowd 50%+1pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 38.5 points: Under 38.5
Mkt 48%Crowd 75%+27pp
: Thin
Who leads at half-time: Miami
Mkt 28%Crowd 50%+22pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A clean Miami statement: the Dolphins control the game from the first half, keep the scoring low, and win without New York threatening a big margin.

Who wins?Miami Dolphins
Will New York win by 5 or more?No
Will there be more than 38.5 points?Under 38.5
Who leads at half-time?Miami
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A tight, grinding contest: neither side separates at the break, the total stays low, and Miami eventually edges it without New York ever threatening a blowout.

Who wins?Miami Dolphins
Will New York win by 5 or more?No
Will there be more than 38.5 points?Under 38.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A paradox scenario: Miami leads at half and wins the game, yet New York somehow covers a five-point margin in a low-scoring affair.

Who wins?Miami Dolphins
Will New York win by 5 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 38.5 points?Under 38.5
Who leads at half-time?Miami
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will New York win by 5 or more?Will there be more than 38.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Miami DolphinsPending
NoPending
Under 38.5Pending
MiamiPending
1.8×
225%1 voter
Miami DolphinsPending
NoPending
Under 38.5Pending
TiePending
3.6×
325%1 voter
Miami DolphinsPending
YesPending
Under 38.5Pending
MiamiPending
1.8×
425%1 voter
New York JetsPending
YesPending
Over 38.5Pending
New York JPending
32.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.64How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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