All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Real MadridWon · Crowd had 88%4
Rayo Vallecano1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Real Madrid won 4–1.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano 655 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 8 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

55%Crowd on Yes
47%Market price
+8Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario38%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters655World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Real Madrid ✓88%
Vallecano7%
Tie5%
OutcomeReal Madrid
Voters655
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓72%
Under 2.5 goals28%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters655
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓55%
No45%
OutcomeYes
Voters655
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Real MadridConsensus
Mkt 86%Crowd 88%+2pp
Result: Real Madrid · 0.02
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 73%Crowd 72%-1pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.16
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 55%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.40
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.02
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.16
Will both teams score0.40
Average0.19
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 38% of voters · came true

Real Madrid win in a free-scoring, end-to-end game where Rayo find the net too. A high-tempo, open affair with goals at both ends.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 28% of voters

Real Madrid win comfortably and pile on the goals, but Rayo are shut out completely. A one-sided, high-scoring shutout for the home side.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Real Madrid grind out a tight, controlled win. Few goals, clean sheet, nothing flashy. A professional job with the game kept locked down.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
79% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 655 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
138%250 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
228%184 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
313%85 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
49%57 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
53%19 voters
VallecanoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
62%13 voters
VallecanoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.3×
72%11 voters
VallecanoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.6×
82%11 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.2×
91%9 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
101%8 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (655 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.09How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3250 · 38%
2 / 3269 · 41%
1 / 3115 · 18%
0 / 321 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=655). Average 2.14 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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