All resolved pollsResolved · 2 OCT 2026Upset
FranceCrowd's pick · 74%1
ItalyCrowd had 16%1
The verdict

France 1–1 Italy

France vs Italy 603 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

73%Crowd on Yes
60%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario41%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters603World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
France74%
Italy16%
Tie ✓10%
OutcomeTie
Voters603
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals63%
Under 2.5 goals ✓37%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters603
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓73%
No27%
OutcomeYes
Voters603
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FranceUpset
Mkt 67%Crowd 74%+7pp
Result: Tie · 1.38
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 65%Crowd 63%-2pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.79
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 73%+13pp
Result: Yes · 0.15
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.38
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.79
Will both teams score0.15
Average0.77
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 41% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: France controlling an open, attacking game with both sides finding the net in a higher-scoring contest.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tighter France win where both teams score but the match stays close, with fewer goals than the majority expected.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

France grinding out a clean, controlled win, keeping Italy off the scoresheet in a low-tempo, defensively solid match.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
65% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 603 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
141%246 voters
FranceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
214%84 voters
FranceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
311%64 voters
FranceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
49%52 voters
FranceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
58%50 voters
ItalyGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
64%24 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
73%19 voters
ItalyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
83%19 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
93%17 voters
ItalyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
102%14 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
2.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (603 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 324 · 4%
2 / 3136 · 23%
1 / 3383 · 64%
0 / 360 · 10%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=603). Average 1.21 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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