All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
New York GiantsCrowd's pick · 67%27
New Orleans SaintsWon · Crowd had 33%34
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. New Orleans Saints won 27–34.

New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 20 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Yes
47%Market price
+20Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsMarket beat the crowd
New York win by 2 or…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 45.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New York Giants67%
New Orleans Saints ✓33%
OutcomeNew Orleans Saints
Voters3
ReadMarket
2Will New York win by 2 or more?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters3
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 45.5 points?
Under 45.567%
Over 45.5 ✓33%
OutcomeOver 45.5
Voters3
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
New Orleans33%
New York G33%
Tie ✓33%
OutcomeTie
Voters3
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New York GiantsMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 67%+18pp
Result: New Orleans Saints · 0.90
: Deep
Will New York win by 2 or more: YesMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 67%+20pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
Will there be more than 45.5 points: Under 45.5Market
Mkt 48%Crowd 67%+19pp
Result: Over 45.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New OrleansUpset
Mkt 49%Crowd 33%-16pp
Result: Tie · 0.67
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will New York win by 2 or more0.90
Will there be more than 45.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time0.67
Average0.84
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters · came true

A Saints victory in a high-scoring, back-and-forth game, with neither side pulling clear at the break, a chaotic and open contest from the first whistle.

Who wins?New Orleans Saints
Will New York win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

Giants grind out a decisive, low-scoring win, with New Orleans briefly ahead at half before New York takes control in a tight, defence-dominated game.

Who wins?New York Giants
Will New York win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Under 45.5
Who leads at half-time?New Orleans
Scenario 3 · 33% of voters

Giants lead from the front, controlling the game at half-time and closing it out with a winning margin of two or more in a disciplined, low-scoring performance.

Who wins?New York Giants
Will New York win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Under 45.5
Who leads at half-time?New York G
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will New York win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 45.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%1 voter
New Orleans SaintsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 45.5Called it!
TieCalled it!
28.1×
233%1 voter
New York GiantsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 45.5Got it wrong
New OrleansGot it wrong
3.4×
333%1 voter
New York GiantsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 45.5Got it wrong
New York GGot it wrong
3.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.79How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call28.1×The most-backed combination drew 28.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-84. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 33%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 42 · 67%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 1.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.