VoxPop top scenarios
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
NetherlandsWon · Crowd had 66%5
SwedenCrowd had 19%1
The verdict
The crowd backed Yes. Netherlands won 5–1.
Netherlands vs. Sweden 1.4k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 30 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.
81%Crowd on Yes
51%Market price
+30Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeNetherlands
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeNetherlands
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.17
Will both teams score0.07
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.29
Who leads at half-time0.29
Average0.21
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
127%372 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsCalled it!
1.4×
212%165 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsCalled it!
1.0×
37%97 voters
SwedenGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SwedenGot it wrong
3.3×
46%80 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.8×
55%70 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsCalled it!
1.9×
64%55 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsCalled it!
0.9×
74%54 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SwedenGot it wrong
0.5×
83%47 voters
SwedenGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
SwedenGot it wrong
2.6×
93%42 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.7×
103%42 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
1.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.25How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 2.65 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.