VoxPop top scenarios
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Netherlands5
Sweden1
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
81%Crowd
51%Market
+30Divergence
+30 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap51%81% Yes+30
2Who leads at half-time?41%56% Netherlands+15
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?52%62% Yes+10
4Who wins?57%66% Netherlands+9
Crowd & market agreedNetherlands 5–1 Sweden — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeNetherlands
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeNetherlands
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.17
Will both teams score0.07
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.29
Who leads at half-time0.29
Average0.21
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
127%372 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsCalled it!
1.4×
212%165 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsCalled it!
1.0×
37%97 voters
SwedenGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SwedenGot it wrong
3.3×
46%80 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.8×
55%70 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsCalled it!
1.9×
64%55 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsCalled it!
0.9×
74%54 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SwedenGot it wrong
0.5×
83%47 voters
SwedenGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
SwedenGot it wrong
2.6×
93%42 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.7×
103%42 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
1.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.25How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 2.65 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching