All resolved pollsResolved · 9 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Sporting CPWon · Crowd had 41%3
GalatasarayCrowd had 39%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Under 2.5 goals. Sporting CP won 3–1.

Sporting CP vs Galatasaray 501 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points above the market's price on Under 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

58%Crowd on Under 2.5 goals
41%Market price
+17Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters501World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Sporting CP ✓41%
Galatasaray39%
Tie20%
OutcomeSporting CP
Voters501
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals58%
Over 2.5 goals ✓42%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters501
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters501
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Sporting CPConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 41%-12pp
Result: Sporting CP · 0.54
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 41%Crowd 58%+17pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.67
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 64%+4pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.54
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.67
Will both teams score0.26
Average0.49
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

A Galatasaray upset in an open, end-to-end contest, both sides finding the net in a game that spills well past the goals line.

Match resultGalatasaray
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters · came true

Sporting CP take the win in a lively, free-scoring affair, with both teams contributing to a tally that clears 2.5 goals.

Match resultSporting CP
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Sporting CP grind out a clean, controlled victory, keeping the game tight and shutting Galatasaray out of the scoresheet entirely.

Match resultSporting CP
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
40% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 501 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
114%72 voters
GalatasarayGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
214%71 voters
Sporting CPCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
311%56 voters
Sporting CPCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
411%56 voters
GalatasarayGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
511%56 voters
Sporting CPCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
611%53 voters
GalatasarayGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
78%42 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
86%28 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
94%22 voters
Sporting CPCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
104%22 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (501 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 371 · 14%
2 / 3172 · 34%
1 / 3177 · 35%
0 / 381 · 16%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=501). Average 1.47 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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