VoxPop top scenarios
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
NetherlandsCrowd's pick · 49%2
JapanCrowd had 38%2
The verdict
Netherlands 2–2 Japan
Netherlands vs. Japan 1.4k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 22 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.
75%Crowd on Yes
53%Market price
+22Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario19%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.14
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.29
Will both teams score0.13
Who leads at half-time0.92
Average0.62
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
119%263 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsGot it wrong
1.9×
216%215 voters
JapanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JapanGot it wrong
2.5×
38%109 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsGot it wrong
1.3×
45%74 voters
JapanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
JapanGot it wrong
1.4×
55%73 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsGot it wrong
2.6×
64%56 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsGot it wrong
1.2×
74%55 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
84%53 voters
JapanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
JapanGot it wrong
1.9×
93%42 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
3.7×
103%39 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JapanGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.34How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 1.72 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.