VoxPop top scenarios
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Netherlands2
Japan2
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
75%Crowd
53%Market
+22Divergence
+22 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap53%75% Yes+22
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?49%62% Yes+13
3Who leads at half-time?35%43% Netherlands+8
4Who wins?47%49% Netherlands+2
UpsetNetherlands 2–2 Japan — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario19%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.14
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.29
Will both teams score0.13
Who leads at half-time0.92
Average0.62
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
119%263 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsGot it wrong
1.9×
216%215 voters
JapanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JapanGot it wrong
2.5×
38%109 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsGot it wrong
1.3×
45%74 voters
JapanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
JapanGot it wrong
1.4×
55%73 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsGot it wrong
2.6×
64%56 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsGot it wrong
1.2×
74%55 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
84%53 voters
JapanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
JapanGot it wrong
1.9×
93%42 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
3.7×
103%39 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
JapanGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.34How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 1.72 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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