All resolved pollsResolved · 23 AUG 2026Market beat the crowd
Brighton and Hove Albion4
Aston VillaCrowd had 72%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Aston Villa. Brighton and Hove Albion won 4–0.

Brighton vs Aston Villa: three calls on one match 646 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 40 points above the market's price on Aston Villa, and it went the other way.

72%Crowd on Aston Villa
32%Market price
+40Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Brighton vs Aston…Market beat the crowd
there be three goals or…Crowd & market agreed
both sides find the netSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters646World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Brighton vs Aston Villa: what is the result?
Aston Villa72%
Brighton ✓21%
Tie7%
OutcomeBrighton
Voters646
ReadMarket
2Will there be three goals or more?
Over 2.5 ✓51%
Under 2.549%
OutcomeOver 2.5
Voters646
ReadConsensus
3Do both sides find the net?
Yes66%
No ✓34%
OutcomeNo
Voters646
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Brighton vs Aston Villa: what is the result: Aston VillaMarket
Mkt 32%Crowd 72%+40pp
Result: Brighton · 1.15
: Deep
Will there be three goals or more: Over 2.5Consensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 51%-9pp
Result: Over 2.5 · 0.48
: Deep
Do both sides find the net: YesUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 66%+3pp
Result: No · 0.87
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Brighton vs Aston Villa: what is the result1.15
Will there be three goals or more0.48
Do both sides find the net0.87
Average0.83
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

A Villa victory in an open, end-to-end game where both sides contribute to a lively scoreline. The crowd's most vivid shared vision of the match.

Brighton vs Aston Villa: what is the result?Aston Villa
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

Villa grind out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Brighton off the scoresheet in a controlled, defensive contest.

Brighton vs Aston Villa: what is the result?Aston Villa
Will there be three goals or more?Under 2.5
Do both sides find the net?No
Scenario 3 · 18% of voters

A narrow Villa win with few goals but both sides getting on the board. A scrappy, closely fought affair decided by a single moment.

Brighton vs Aston Villa: what is the result?Aston Villa
Will there be three goals or more?Under 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
65% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 646 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosBrighton vs Aston Villa: what is the result?Will there be three goals or more?Do both sides find the net?
128%182 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
219%124 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.6×
318%115 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
411%68 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Over 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
57%45 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
64%29 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
74%25 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Under 2.5Got it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.1×
82%16 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Over 2.5Called it!
NoCalled it!
0.7×
92%16 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
102%15 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (646 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 316 · 2%
2 / 3142 · 22%
1 / 3358 · 55%
0 / 3130 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=646). Average 1.07 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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