All resolved pollsResolved · 10 SEPT 2026Upset
Fenerbahçe1
RomaCrowd had 64%1
The verdict

Fenerbahce 1–1 AS Roma

Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma 587 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 20 points above the market's price on Roma, and it went the other way.

64%Crowd on Roma
44%Market price
+20Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters587World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Roma64%
Fenerbahce20%
Tie ✓15%
OutcomeTie
Voters587
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals51%
Under 2.5 goals ✓49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters587
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓65%
No35%
OutcomeYes
Voters587
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: RomaUpset
Mkt 44%Crowd 64%+20pp
Result: Tie · 1.17
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 51%-4pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.52
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 65%+5pp
Result: Yes · 0.24
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.17
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.52
Will both teams score0.24
Average0.65
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

Roma winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a match that spills past the goals line.

Match resultRoma
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Roma grinding out a tight, controlled win, keeping Fenerbahce off the scoresheet in a low-scoring, disciplined affair.

Match resultRoma
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Roma edging a close match with both teams scoring but the game staying narrow, decided by a single goal's difference.

Match resultRoma
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
58% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 587 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
128%167 voters
RomaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
216%91 voters
RomaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
314%80 voters
RomaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
47%44 voters
FenerbahceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
57%39 voters
RomaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
66%35 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
75%30 voters
FenerbahceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
85%29 voters
FenerbahceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
95%29 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
103%20 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (587 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 335 · 6%
2 / 3158 · 27%
1 / 3338 · 58%
0 / 356 · 10%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=587). Average 1.29 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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