The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
France3
Iraq0
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
59%Crowd
33%Market
+26Divergence

+26 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on both teams scoring, a read that did not align with the outcome.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap33%59% Yes+26
2Who leads at half-time?70%85% France+15
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?70%78% Yes+8
4Who wins this match?87%90% France+3
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedFrance 3–0 Iraq — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario39%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.5kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
France ✓90%
Iraq5%
Draw4%
OutcomeFrance
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
Yes59%
No ✓41%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.5k
ReadMarket
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes ✓78%
No22%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
France ✓85%
Draw8%
Iraq7%
OutcomeFrance
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: FranceConsensus
Mkt 87%Crowd 90%+3pp
Result: France · 0.01
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 33%Crowd 59%+26pp
Result: No · 0.70
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 70%Crowd 78%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.10
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: FranceConsensus
Mkt 70%Crowd 85%+15pp
Result: France · 0.03
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.01
Will both teams score0.70
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.10
Who leads at half-time0.03
Average0.21
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 39% of voters

A free-flowing, high-scoring contest with France in front at the break and both sides finding the net in a goal-laden win.

Who wins this match?France
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France
Scenario 2 · 28% of voters · came true

France dominant and clinical, keeping a clean sheet while the goals still piled up on their side of the ledger.

Who wins this match?France
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight, controlled France victory, shutting Iraq out and keeping the total goal count low throughout.

Who wins this match?France
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?France
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.5k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
139%586 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
FranceCalled it!
1.1×
228%415 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
FranceCalled it!
1.1×
38%122 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
FranceCalled it!
1.2×
47%108 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
FranceCalled it!
0.7×
52%28 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.6×
62%26 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
IraqGot it wrong
0.6×
72%25 voters
IraqGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
IraqGot it wrong
10.4×
81%22 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
2.3×
91%15 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.1×
101%15 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
6.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.5k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4415 · 28%
3 / 4728 · 49%
2 / 4226 · 15%
1 / 4105 · 7%
0 / 423 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.5k). Average 2.94 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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