All resolved pollsResolved · 22 JUN 2026Crowd & market agreed
FranceWon · Crowd had 90%3
IraqCrowd had 5%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. France won 3–0.

France vs. Iraq 1.5k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

59%Crowd on Yes
33%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario39%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.5kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
France ✓90%
Iraq5%
Draw4%
OutcomeFrance
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
Yes59%
No ✓41%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.5k
ReadMarket
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes ✓78%
No22%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
France ✓85%
Draw8%
Iraq7%
OutcomeFrance
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: FranceConsensus
Mkt 87%Crowd 90%+3pp
Result: France · 0.01
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 33%Crowd 59%+26pp
Result: No · 0.70
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 70%Crowd 78%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.10
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: FranceConsensus
Mkt 70%Crowd 85%+15pp
Result: France · 0.03
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.01
Will both teams score0.70
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.10
Who leads at half-time0.03
Average0.21
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 39% of voters

A free-flowing, high-scoring contest with France in front at the break and both sides finding the net in a goal-laden win.

Who wins this match?France
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France
Scenario 2 · 28% of voters · came true

France dominant and clinical, keeping a clean sheet while the goals still piled up on their side of the ledger.

Who wins this match?France
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight, controlled France victory, shutting Iraq out and keeping the total goal count low throughout.

Who wins this match?France
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?France
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.5k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
139%586 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
FranceCalled it!
1.1×
228%415 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
FranceCalled it!
1.1×
38%122 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
FranceCalled it!
1.2×
47%108 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
FranceCalled it!
0.7×
52%28 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.6×
62%26 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
IraqGot it wrong
0.6×
72%25 voters
IraqGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
IraqGot it wrong
10.4×
81%22 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
2.3×
91%15 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.1×
101%15 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
6.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.5k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4415 · 28%
3 / 4728 · 49%
2 / 4226 · 15%
1 / 4105 · 7%
0 / 423 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.5k). Average 2.94 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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