All resolved pollsResolved · 24 OCT 2026Upset
ChapecoenseWon · Crowd had 21%2
FluminenseCrowd's pick · 66%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Fluminense. Chapecoense won 2–1.

Chapecoense vs Fluminense 542 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Fluminense, and it went the other way.

66%Crowd on Fluminense
53%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario31%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters542World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Fluminense66%
Chapecoense ✓21%
Tie13%
OutcomeChapecoense
Voters542
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓52%
Under 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters542
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓65%
No35%
OutcomeYes
Voters542
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FluminenseUpset
Mkt 53%Crowd 66%+13pp
Result: Chapecoense · 1.08
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 52%0pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 65%+11pp
Result: Yes · 0.24
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.08
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.24
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 31% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Fluminense in control, an open game spilling past 2.5 goals, with both sides finding the net in a lively contest.

Match resultFluminense
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A disciplined Fluminense shutout scenario, the game tight and low-scoring, with Chapecoense kept off the board entirely.

Match resultFluminense
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Fluminense edging a close, scrappy affair, both teams scoring but the game never opening up beyond a couple of goals.

Match resultFluminense
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
59% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 542 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
131%167 voters
FluminenseGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
216%88 voters
FluminenseGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
312%66 voters
FluminenseGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
48%46 voters
ChapecoenseCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
57%38 voters
FluminenseGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
66%31 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
76%31 voters
ChapecoenseCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
84%22 voters
ChapecoenseCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
94%22 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
103%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (542 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 346 · 8%
2 / 3226 · 42%
1 / 3160 · 30%
0 / 3110 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=542). Average 1.38 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.