All resolved pollsResolved · 15 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
LyonWon · Crowd had 46%3
Crystal PalaceCrowd had 40%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Lyon won 3–2.

Lyon vs Crystal Palace 567 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 8 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Yes
62%Market price
+8Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters567World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Lyon ✓46%
Crystal Palace40%
Tie15%
OutcomeLyon
Voters567
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓54%
Under 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters567
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters567
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: LyonConsensus
Mkt 43%Crowd 46%+3pp
Result: Lyon · 0.47
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 54%-3pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.42
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 70%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.47
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.42
Will both teams score0.18
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters · came true

The crowd's modal vision: Lyon controlling a lively, open game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely throughout.

Match resultLyon
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

A sizable minority saw Crystal Palace turning the tide in a high-tempo, end-to-end contest where both teams contributed to a busy scoreline.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A compact, disciplined scenario: Lyon grinding out a clean, tight win with the game staying locked and only one side breaking through.

Match resultLyon
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 567 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
121%121 voters
LyonCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
219%110 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
311%60 voters
LyonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
410%54 voters
LyonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
59%52 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
68%46 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
75%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
85%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
94%25 voters
LyonCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
103%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (567 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3121 · 21%
2 / 3219 · 39%
1 / 3163 · 29%
0 / 364 · 11%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=567). Average 1.7 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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