All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Upset
BournemouthCrowd's pick · 48%2
BrentfordCrowd had 30%2
The verdict

AFC Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford

Bournemouth vs Brentford 661 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Under 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

54%Crowd on Under 2.5 goals
42%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters661World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Bournemouth48%
Brentford30%
Tie ✓22%
OutcomeTie
Voters661
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals54%
Over 2.5 goals ✓46%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters661
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters661
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: BournemouthUpset
Mkt 39%Crowd 48%+9pp
Result: Tie · 0.93
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 42%Crowd 54%+12pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.58
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 66%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.93
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.58
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.58
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

Bournemouth win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net in a multi-goal home victory.

Match resultBournemouth
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Bournemouth grind out a tight, low-scoring win with only one side scoring, goals at a premium throughout.

Match resultBournemouth
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A cagey, evenly matched draw where both teams nick a goal each but the game stays locked and low on chances.

Match resultTie
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
44% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 661 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
121%136 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
213%84 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
311%73 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
411%73 voters
BrentfordGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
510%66 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
68%56 voters
BrentfordGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
77%45 voters
BrentfordGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
85%34 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
95%31 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
104%28 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (661 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 331 · 5%
2 / 3291 · 44%
1 / 3210 · 32%
0 / 3129 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=661). Average 1.34 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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