All resolved pollsResolved · 19 SEPT 2026Upset
Brighton and Hove Albion3
ArsenalCrowd had 81%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Arsenal. Brighton and Hove Albion won 3–0.

Brighton vs Arsenal 600 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 24 points above the market's price on Arsenal, and it went the other way.

81%Crowd on Arsenal
57%Market price
+24Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario39%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters600World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Arsenal81%
Brighton ✓11%
Tie8%
OutcomeBrighton
Voters600
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓65%
Under 2.5 goals35%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters600
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes62%
No ✓38%
OutcomeNo
Voters600
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ArsenalUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 81%+24pp
Result: Brighton · 1.45
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 65%+11pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.24
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 62%+8pp
Result: No · 0.77
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.45
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.24
Will both teams score0.77
Average0.82
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 39% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Arsenal winning a lively, open game with both sides finding the net in a high-scoring contest.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A secondary cluster saw Arsenal winning with goals flowing, but keeping Brighton off the scoresheet entirely for a clean-sheet victory.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

A tighter, more cautious vision: Arsenal grinding out a low-scoring win and shutting Brighton out with few goals to speak of.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
71% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 600 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
139%234 voters
ArsenalGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
217%102 voters
ArsenalGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.8×
315%89 voters
ArsenalGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
411%63 voters
ArsenalGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
54%25 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
63%18 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
73%17 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
82%14 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.6×
92%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
102%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (600 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 38 · 1%
2 / 3147 · 25%
1 / 3365 · 61%
0 / 380 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=600). Average 1.14 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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