All resolved pollsResolved · 3 JUL 2026Market beat the crowd
Australia1 (2)
Egypt1 (4)
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Egypt won 1–1.

Australia vs Egypt 1.5k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

66%Crowd on Yes
43%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchMarket beat the crowd
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario12%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.5kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Australia advances56%
Egypt advances44%
OutcomeEgypt advances
Voters1.5k
ReadMarket
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.5k
ReadCrowd
3Who leads at half-time?
Australia wins 1st Half38%
Egypt wins 1st Half31%
Tie 1st Half31%
OutcomeEgypt wins 1st Half
Voters1.5k
ReadUpset
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No60%
Yes40%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Australia advancesMarket
Mkt 44%Crowd 56%+12pp
Result: Egypt advances · 0.63
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 43%Crowd 66%+23pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Australia wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 22%Crowd 38%+16pp
Result: Egypt wins 1st Half · 0.72
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 60%-6pp
Result: No · 0.32
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.63
Will both teams score in regulation time0.23
Who leads at half-time0.72
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.32
Average0.47
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 12% of voters

Australia in front from the first whistle, both sides finding the net, but the goals stay tight enough to keep the total under three.

Who wins this match?Australia advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Australia wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

Australia dominant and ahead at the break, both teams scoring in an open game that spills past three goals before the final whistle.

Who wins this match?Australia advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Australia wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

Egypt seizes the initiative early and leads at half-time, with both sides scoring but the match staying a close, low-scoring contest.

Who wins this match?Egypt advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Egypt wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
33% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.5k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
112%184 voters
Australia advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Australia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
211%170 voters
Australia advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Australia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
39%138 voters
Egypt advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Egypt wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
48%125 voters
Egypt advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Egypt wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
2.3×
56%95 voters
Australia advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Australia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
66%94 voters
Egypt advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.2×
75%82 voters
Egypt advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
85%80 voters
Australia advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
95%79 voters
Egypt advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Egypt wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
105%77 voters
Australia advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.5k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.28How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-12. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4138 · 9%
3 / 4342 · 23%
2 / 4519 · 34%
1 / 4435 · 29%
0 / 478 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.5k). Average 2.02 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.