All resolved pollsResolved · 22 OCT 2026Upset
Lech Poznań1
SunderlandCrowd had 62%1
The verdict

Lech Poznan 1–1 Sunderland

Lech Poznan vs Sunderland 552 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

66%Crowd on Yes
52%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters552World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Sunderland62%
Lech Poznan19%
Tie ✓19%
OutcomeTie
Voters552
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓51%
Over 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters552
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters552
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SunderlandUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 62%+1pp
Result: Tie · 1.08
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 51%+4pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 66%+14pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.08
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.60
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters

A high-scoring Sunderland away win, both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest that the crowd saw as the most vivid shared vision.

Match resultSunderland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

A tight, controlled Sunderland victory, one team kept scoreless, the game decided by a single goal in a compact, low-risk affair.

Match resultSunderland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

A narrow Sunderland win with both sides scoring once, a close and tense match settled by the slimmest of margins.

Match resultSunderland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
55% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 552 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%149 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
215%81 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
314%75 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
49%50 voters
Lech PoznanGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
58%43 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
67%37 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
77%37 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
84%23 voters
Lech PoznanGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
94%22 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
104%21 voters
Lech PoznanGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (552 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 343 · 8%
2 / 3157 · 28%
1 / 3306 · 55%
0 / 346 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=552). Average 1.36 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.