All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Upset
Pumas UNAMCrowd had 37%3
Cruz AzulCrowd's pick · 46%3
The verdict

Pumas UNAM 3–3 Cruz Azul

Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul 547 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 9 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Yes
61%Market price
+9Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters547World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Cruz Azul46%
Pumas UNAM37%
Tie ✓17%
OutcomeTie
Voters547
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓52%
Under 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters547
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters547
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Cruz AzulUpset
Mkt 48%Crowd 46%-2pp
Result: Tie · 1.04
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 52%-6pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 70%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.04
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.18
Average0.56
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Cruz Azul winning a free-flowing, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net in a high-tempo affair.

Match resultCruz Azul
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

A meaningful share of the crowd flipped the winner but kept the same open-game frame: Pumas UNAM edging a mutual scoring, goal-heavy match.

Match resultPumas UNAM
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tighter, more cautious vision: Cruz Azul grinding out a narrow win in a cagey game where both teams still manage to get on the scoresheet.

Match resultCruz Azul
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 547 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
122%118 voters
Cruz AzulGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
218%96 voters
Pumas UNAMGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
311%58 voters
Cruz AzulGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
410%57 voters
Cruz AzulGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
59%51 voters
Pumas UNAMGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
67%37 voters
Pumas UNAMGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
76%33 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
85%28 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
95%26 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
103%19 voters
Pumas UNAMGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (547 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 328 · 5%
2 / 3255 · 47%
1 / 3170 · 31%
0 / 394 · 17%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=547). Average 1.4 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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