All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Jacksonville JaguarsWon · Crowd had 55%34
Cleveland BrownsCrowd had 45%10
The verdict

The crowd called it — Jacksonville Jaguars won 34–10.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns 572 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 24 points below the market's price on Jacksonville Jaguars, and the crowd had it.

55%Crowd on Jacksonville Jaguars
79%Market price
-24Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
Against the spread, who…Market beat the crowd
total points are scoredCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters572World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Jacksonville Jaguars ✓55%
Cleveland Browns45%
OutcomeJacksonville Jaguars
Voters572
ReadConsensus
2Against the spread, who covers?
Cleveland Browns +7.551%
Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 ✓49%
OutcomeJacksonville Jaguars -7.5
Voters572
ReadMarket
3How many total points are scored?
Over 40.5 ✓57%
Under 40.543%
OutcomeOver 40.5
Voters572
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Jacksonville Jaguars ✓47%
Cleveland Browns38%
Tie15%
OutcomeJacksonville Jaguars
Voters572
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Jacksonville JaguarsConsensus
Mkt 79%Crowd 55%-24pp
Result: Jacksonville Jaguars · 0.40
: Deep
Against the spread, who covers: Cleveland Browns +7.5Market
Mkt 48%Crowd 51%+3pp
Result: Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 · 0.52
: Deep
How many total points are scored: Over 40.5Consensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 57%+6pp
Result: Over 40.5 · 0.37
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Jacksonville JaguarsConsensus
Mkt 68%Crowd 47%-21pp
Result: Jacksonville Jaguars · 0.45
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.40
Against the spread, who covers0.52
How many total points are scored0.37
Who leads at half-time0.45
Average0.44
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters · came true

Jacksonville in command from the first whistle, covering a big spread in a high-scoring game they lead at the break and never relinquish.

Who wins?Jacksonville Jaguars
Against the spread, who covers?Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5
How many total points are scored?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Jacksonville Jaguars
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

Cleveland turns the game on its head, leading at half-time and keeping it close enough to cover while both offences push the total past the line.

Who wins?Cleveland Browns
Against the spread, who covers?Cleveland Browns +7.5
How many total points are scored?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Cleveland Browns
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Jacksonville dominates through defence and efficiency, building a lead at half-time and grinding out a low-scoring win that still covers the spread comfortably.

Who wins?Jacksonville Jaguars
Against the spread, who covers?Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5
How many total points are scored?Under 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Jacksonville Jaguars
37% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 572 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Against the spread, who covers?How many total points are scored?Who leads at half-time?
117%96 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5Called it!
Over 40.5Called it!
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
2.3×
212%68 voters
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
Cleveland Browns +7.5Got it wrong
Over 40.5Called it!
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
2.4×
38%47 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5Called it!
Under 40.5Got it wrong
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
1.5×
47%39 voters
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
Cleveland Browns +7.5Got it wrong
Under 40.5Got it wrong
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
1.8×
55%27 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
Cleveland Browns +7.5Got it wrong
Over 40.5Called it!
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
0.6×
64%24 voters
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
Cleveland Browns +7.5Got it wrong
Under 40.5Got it wrong
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
0.9×
74%23 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
Cleveland Browns +7.5Got it wrong
Under 40.5Got it wrong
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
0.7×
84%22 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
Cleveland Browns +7.5Got it wrong
Over 40.5Called it!
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
0.6×
94%22 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
Cleveland Browns +7.5Got it wrong
Under 40.5Got it wrong
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
0.8×
103%20 voters
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
Cleveland Browns +7.5Got it wrong
Over 40.5Called it!
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (572 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.3×The most-backed combination drew 2.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-14. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 496 · 17%
3 / 4119 · 21%
2 / 4140 · 24%
1 / 4166 · 29%
0 / 451 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=572). Average 2.08 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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