All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Minnesota VikingsWon · Crowd had 33%15
Miami DolphinsCrowd's pick · 67%10
The verdict

The crowd backed Miami Dolphins. Minnesota Vikings won 15–10.

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 50 points above the market's price on Miami Dolphins, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Miami Dolphins
17%Market price
+50Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsMarket beat the crowd
Minnesota win by 10 or…Surprise
there be more than 39.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Miami Dolphins67%
Minnesota Vikings ✓33%
OutcomeMinnesota Vikings
Voters6
ReadMarket
2Will Minnesota win by 10 or more?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters6
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 39.5 points?
Over 39.550%
Under 39.5 ✓50%
OutcomeUnder 39.5
Voters6
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Minnesota ✓50%
Miami33%
Tie17%
OutcomeMinnesota
Voters6
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Miami DolphinsMarket
Mkt 17%Crowd 67%+50pp
Result: Minnesota Vikings · 0.90
: Deep
Will Minnesota win by 10 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 67%+12pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
Will there be more than 39.5 points: Over 39.5Market
Mkt 48%Crowd 50%+2pp
Result: Under 39.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: MinnesotaConsensus
Mkt 72%Crowd 50%-22pp
Result: Minnesota · 0.39
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will Minnesota win by 10 or more0.90
Will there be more than 39.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.39
Average0.67
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

The crowd pictured Miami controlling both halves, winning without a blowout margin, in a high-scoring, open game that stayed competitive throughout.

Who wins?Miami Dolphins
Will Minnesota win by 10 or more?No
Will there be more than 39.5 points?Over 39.5
Who leads at half-time?Miami
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

The crowd saw Minnesota setting the early tempo at the break, yet Miami ultimately flipping the game in a free-flowing, points-heavy contest decided by a narrow margin.

Who wins?Miami Dolphins
Will Minnesota win by 10 or more?No
Will there be more than 39.5 points?Over 39.5
Who leads at half-time?Minnesota
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

The crowd envisioned Miami dominant from the front, leading at half and pulling clear by double digits in a tight, low-scoring defensive affair.

Who wins?Miami Dolphins
Will Minnesota win by 10 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 39.5 points?Under 39.5
Who leads at half-time?Miami
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Minnesota win by 10 or more?Will there be more than 39.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
117%1 voter
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 39.5Got it wrong
MiamiGot it wrong
4.6×
217%1 voter
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 39.5Got it wrong
MinnesotaCalled it!
3.0×
317%1 voter
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 39.5Called it!
MiamiGot it wrong
2.3×
417%1 voter
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 39.5Called it!
MinnesotaCalled it!
1.5×
517%1 voter
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 39.5Got it wrong
MinnesotaCalled it!
3.0×
617%1 voter
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 39.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
8.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 6 of 6 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.65How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call4.6×The most-backed combination drew 4.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-27. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 44 · 67%
1 / 42 · 33%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 1.67 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.