All resolved pollsResolved · 11 JUN 2026Crowd & market agreed
MexicoWon · Crowd had 74%2
South AfricaCrowd had 17%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Mexico won 2–0.

Opening match - Mexico vs South Africa 2.1k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 38 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

77%Crowd on Yes
39%Market price
+38Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins the matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters2.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins the match?
Mexico74%
South Africa17%
Draw10%
OutcomeMexico
Voters2.1k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
Yes77%
No23%
OutcomeNo
Voters2.1k
ReadMarket
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes54%
No46%
OutcomeNo
Voters2.1k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Mexico63%
South Africa20%
Tie17%
OutcomeMexico
Voters2.1k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins the match: MexicoConsensus
Mkt 69%Crowd 74%+5pp
Result: Mexico · 0.11
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 77%+38pp
Result: No · 1.19
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 54%+9pp
Result: No · 0.58
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: MexicoConsensus
Mkt 49%Crowd 63%+14pp
Result: Mexico · 0.21
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins the match0.11
Will both teams score1.19
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.58
Who leads at half-time0.21
Average0.52
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

A free-flowing Mexico victory: both sides find the net, goals flow past three, and Mexico control the tempo from the first whistle through half-time.

Who wins the match?Mexico
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Mexico
Scenario 2 · 8% of voters · came true

A disciplined, low-key Mexico win: South Africa kept off the scoresheet, the game stays under three goals, and Mexico lead comfortably at half-time.

Who wins the match?Mexico
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Mexico
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 2.1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins the match?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
126%544 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
MexicoCalled it!
1.3×
217%366 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
MexicoCalled it!
1.1×
38%164 voters
MexicoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
MexicoCalled it!
1.6×
45%111 voters
South AfricaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
South AfricaGot it wrong
3.7×
55%99 voters
MexicoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
MexicoCalled it!
0.8×
64%80 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
TieGot it wrong
0.7×
74%79 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
0.8×
83%66 voters
South AfricaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
South AfricaGot it wrong
2.6×
93%65 voters
MexicoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
South AfricaGot it wrong
0.5×
103%61 voters
MexicoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
2.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (2.1k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.22How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4164 · 8%
3 / 4549 · 26%
2 / 4809 · 39%
1 / 4392 · 19%
0 / 4183 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=2.1k). Average 2.06 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.