All resolved pollsResolved · 22 AUG 2026Upset
Ipswich TownWon · Crowd had 30%2
SunderlandCrowd's pick · 59%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Sunderland. Ipswich Town won 2–1.

Ipswich Town vs Sunderland: three calls on one match 632 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on Sunderland, and it went the other way.

59%Crowd on Sunderland
36%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Ipswich Town vs…Surprise
there be three goals or…Surprise
both sides find the netCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters632World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Ipswich Town vs Sunderland: what is the result?
Sunderland59%
Ipswich Town ✓30%
Tie11%
OutcomeIpswich Town
Voters632
ReadUpset
2Will there be three goals or more?
Under 2.555%
Over 2.5 ✓45%
OutcomeOver 2.5
Voters632
ReadUpset
3Do both sides find the net?
Yes ✓63%
No37%
OutcomeYes
Voters632
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Ipswich Town vs Sunderland: what is the result: SunderlandUpset
Mkt 36%Crowd 59%+23pp
Result: Ipswich Town · 0.85
: Deep
Will there be three goals or more: Under 2.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 55%+4pp
Result: Over 2.5 · 0.61
: Deep
Do both sides find the net: YesConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 63%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.27
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Ipswich Town vs Sunderland: what is the result0.85
Will there be three goals or more0.61
Do both sides find the net0.27
Average0.58
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

A Sunderland win in an open, end-to-end match. Both sides contributing goals in a game that spills past three.

Ipswich Town vs Sunderland: what is the result?Sunderland
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

Sunderland grinding out a tight, controlled victory. Few goals, one side shut out, the match decided by a narrow margin.

Ipswich Town vs Sunderland: what is the result?Sunderland
Will there be three goals or more?Under 2.5
Do both sides find the net?No
Scenario 3 · 16% of voters

Sunderland edging a close, low-scoring affair where Ipswich still find the net but cannot prevent the away side from taking all three points.

Ipswich Town vs Sunderland: what is the result?Sunderland
Will there be three goals or more?Under 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
53% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 632 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosIpswich Town vs Sunderland: what is the result?Will there be three goals or more?Do both sides find the net?
120%125 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
218%112 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
316%98 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
412%77 voters
Ipswich TownCalled it!
Over 2.5Called it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
58%49 voters
Ipswich TownCalled it!
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
66%40 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
76%40 voters
Ipswich TownCalled it!
Under 2.5Got it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
85%34 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
94%23 voters
Ipswich TownCalled it!
Over 2.5Called it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
102%15 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (632 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 377 · 12%
2 / 3212 · 34%
1 / 3217 · 34%
0 / 3126 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=632). Average 1.38 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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