All resolved pollsResolved · 22 AUG 2026Upset
Hull CityWon · Crowd had 12%2
Manchester UnitedCrowd's pick · 85%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Manchester United. Hull City won 2–0.

Hull City vs Manchester United: three calls on one match 671 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 16 points above the market's price on Manchester United, and it went the other way.

85%Crowd on Manchester United
69%Market price
+16Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Hull City vs Manchester…Surprise
there be three goals or…Surprise
both sides find the netMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario35%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters671World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Hull City vs Manchester United: what is the result?
Manchester United85%
Hull City ✓12%
Tie3%
OutcomeHull City
Voters671
ReadUpset
2Will there be three goals or more?
Over 2.560%
Under 2.5 ✓40%
OutcomeUnder 2.5
Voters671
ReadUpset
3Do both sides find the net?
Yes62%
No ✓38%
OutcomeNo
Voters671
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Hull City vs Manchester United: what is the result: Manchester UnitedUpset
Mkt 69%Crowd 85%+16pp
Result: Hull City · 1.50
: Deep
Will there be three goals or more: Over 2.5Upset
Mkt 55%Crowd 60%+5pp
Result: Under 2.5 · 0.72
: Deep
Do both sides find the net: YesMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 62%+13pp
Result: No · 0.77
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Hull City vs Manchester United: what is the result1.50
Will there be three goals or more0.72
Do both sides find the net0.77
Average1.00
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 35% of voters

A United win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides contribute to a three-plus goal tally. The crowd's dominant vision, clustering tightly around a busy, United-controlled

Hull City vs Manchester United: what is the result?Manchester United
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

United grind out a narrow win, both sides netting but the game staying tight and low-scoring. A cautious variation on the United-win theme, with goals shared but scarce.

Hull City vs Manchester United: what is the result?Manchester United
Will there be three goals or more?Under 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

United win with goals to spare but keep a clean sheet, the scoring coming from one side only in a higher-volume but one-sided contest.

Hull City vs Manchester United: what is the result?Manchester United
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?No
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 671 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosHull City vs Manchester United: what is the result?Will there be three goals or more?Do both sides find the net?
135%237 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
217%113 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
317%111 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5Got it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
416%107 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5Called it!
NoCalled it!
1.2×
55%31 voters
Hull CityCalled it!
Over 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
63%22 voters
Hull CityCalled it!
Under 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
72%14 voters
Hull CityCalled it!
Over 2.5Got it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
82%14 voters
Hull CityCalled it!
Under 2.5Called it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
91%9 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
1.8×
101%7 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5Got it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (671 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.08How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 314 · 2%
2 / 3146 · 22%
1 / 3271 · 40%
0 / 3240 · 36%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=671). Average 0.9 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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